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Modeling Aggregate Use of IMF Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

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  • Atish Ghosh
  • Manuela Goretti
  • Bikas Joshi
  • Alun Thomas
  • Juan Zalduendo

Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources from the General Resources Account in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches—the time-series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model—yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000–05 to an average of about SDR 8 billion over 2006–10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on the IMF's World Economic Outlook projections with a correction for historically observed overoptimistic biases. In addition, alternative scenarios assuming weaker economic performance or a less benign global economic environment do not materially alter these results. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 1–49; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450031

Suggested Citation

  • Atish Ghosh & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun Thomas & Juan Zalduendo, 2008. "Modeling Aggregate Use of IMF Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 1-49, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:1-49
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yasemin Bal Gündüz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/263, International Monetary Fund.
    2. ., 2016. "Introduction and overview: the purposes and operations of the IMF," Chapters, in: The International Monetary Fund, chapter 1, pages 1-18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Martin Iseringhausen & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu & Wellian Wiranto, 2019. "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2019/245, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stephen C. Nelson & Geoffrey P. R. Wallace, 2017. "Are IMF lending programs good or bad for democracy?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 523-558, December.
    5. Andrea Filippo Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "The Global Crisis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: How the IMF Responded," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 35, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    6. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2010. "The Episodic and Unpredictable Nature of IMF Lending: An Empirical Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1280-1301, October.
    7. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.
    8. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2007/152, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sonsoles Gallego & Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois & Fernando López-Vicente, 2018. "The International Monetary Fund and its Role as a Guarantor of Global Financial Stability," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    10. Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "IMF Lending in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis," Development Working Papers 305, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.

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