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French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Caramazza

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of realignment expectations for the French franc--deutsche mark exchange rate. Expected changes in the central parity are estimated by adjusting short-term Euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change in the exchange rate within the ERM fluctuation band and by the yield differential on long-term government bonds. The results indicate that the exchange rate within the band is mean reverting and that expected changes are sizable. Realignment expectations are found to be related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:3:p:567-583
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    Cited by:

    1. Koh, Seng Kee & Fong, Wai Mun & Chan, Fabrice, 2007. "A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-148, February.
    2. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Macdonald, Ronald & Oliver, Michael J., 2009. "Sterling in crisis, 1964–1967," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 437-459, December.
    4. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Sideris, Dimitris A. & Voumvaki, Fragiska K., 2005. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 959-981, October.
    5. Kuzmin, Anton, 1971. "A Structural Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," MPRA Paper 64614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Movement in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(3), pages 115-127, JUNE.
    7. Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995. "Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
    8. Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 1999. "A regime - switching approach to studying speculative attacks : focus on European Monetary System crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2132, The World Bank.
    9. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January.
    10. Jerome Henry & Jens Weidmann, 2005. "The French-German Interest Rate Differential Since German," International Finance 0503009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hefeker, Carsten, 1994. "GMU, EMU, and the Bundesbank: The political economy of recent EMS-crises," Discussion Papers, Series II 221, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    12. Andrea Cipollini & Kostas Mouratidis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 11-27, August.
    13. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    14. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
    15. Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2003. "Explaining ERM realignments: Insights from optimising models of currency crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 491-507, December.
    16. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime‐Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 409-431, November.
    17. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:6:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2017. "The Credibility of a Soft Pegged Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from a Panel Data Study," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, May.
    20. Bernhardsen, Tom, 2000. "The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-308, April.
    21. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    22. Girardin, Eric & Marimoutou, Velayoudom, 1997. "Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 931-944, December.
    23. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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