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Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo A. Calvo

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Real bank credit in Eastern European countries after their recent stabilization programs is shown to have fallen sharply, except in the case of Hungary. The meaning of the fall is discussed from the present value and liquidity perspectives. Moreover, it is shown that the hypothesis that the output contraction may partly owe to a credit contraction cannot be ruled out. The hypothesis is tested on a sample of 85 branches of industry in Poland. Also analyzed are the rationale for expecting a connection between credit and output and the policy options available to mitigate the liquidity crunch in postsocialist economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:1:p:32-52
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    JEL classification:

    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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