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Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • James M. Boughton

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

It is shown that the empirical performance of asset-market models of exchange rates for key currencies can be improved by including information about the term structure of interest rate differentials. The paper extends a portfolio-balance model by including both long- and short-term interest rates as determining variables. Estimation of the model indicates that real exchange rates for the United States, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany are affected both by nominal short-term interest differentials and by real long-term differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Boughton, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 36-62, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:35:y:1988:i:1:p:36-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1997. "Domestic and external factors in interest rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 465-471.
    2. Ogaki, Masao & Santaella, Julio A., 2000. "The exchange rate and the term structure of interest rates in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 135-155, October.
    3. Lee, Shyan-Yuan & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 1998. "Model selection for causal models: The global procedure with AICC and AICU," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 205-223.
    4. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
    5. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
    6. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Camille Baulant & Michel Boutillier & François Renard, 1992. "Taux d'intérêt et comportements spéculatifs sur le marché du franc français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 97-108.

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