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A Note on Reserve Use under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes (Note concernant l'utilisation des réserves sous différents régimes de taux de change) (Una nota sobre la utilización de las reservas con distintos sistemas de tipos de cambio)

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  • Esther C. Suss

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Under the present exchange rate system of managed floating, countries have the choice between allowing the exchange rate to respond to market forces and intervening in the market. While it is tautologically true that under a freely flexible exchange rate system there is no need for reserves, it is not possible a priori to state whether there will be a reduction in reserve use, given a movement toward more flexible exchange rates. This paper examines for 14 industrial countries their reserve use during a period of relatively fixed rates, and compares those figures with their reserve use during a period of managed floating. Since there is no standardized definition of reserve use that can be readily obtained from published data, several measures of reserve "use" have been calculated. If conflicting results are obtained from the different measures, this underscores the difficulty in analyzing this issue, while if consistent results are obtained from a majority of the measures, there will be a degree of confidence in drawing conclusions. The results obtained from the various measures indicate that 7 countries had reduced reserve use in the floating period, 3 countries had increased use, and the remaining 4 countries had mixed results. The overall conclusion drawn from the analysis is that reserve use has generally declined during the period of managed floating, but not by a large magnitude. /// Dans le système actuel de flottement dirigé, les autorités des pays ont le choix entre laisser les cours subir les effets des forces du marché et intervenir sur le marché. C'est un truisme, certes, de dire qu'en régime de taux de change librement déterminé par le marché, les réserves n'ont aucune raison d'être, mais on ne saurait inférer d'emblée qu'il y aura un fléchissement du recours aux réserves par suite d'une évolution vers un tel régime. L'auteur examine et compare pour 14 pays industriels le recours aux réserves en période de parités relativement fixes et en période de flottement dirigé. Comme les statistiques connues n'offrent pas le moyen d'obtenir une définition systématique du recours aux réserves, l'auteur établit plusieurs méthodes permettant de mesurer l'ampleur de ce "recours." Lorsque les différentes mesures débouchent sur des résultats inconciliables, cela dénote les difficultés de l'analyse; mais lorsqu'en majorité, elles mènent à des résultats convergents, on peut déduire de l'analyse certaines conclusions. Les différentes mesures effectuées montrent que dans la période de flottement le recours aux réserves a diminué pour sept pays, augmenté pour trois pays et des résultats contradictoires ont été obtenus pour les quatre autres. Dans l'ensemble, la conclusion de l'analyse est que dans la période de flottement dirigé le recours aux réserves a baissé, en règle générale, mais il ne l'a pas fait dans une proportion considérable. /// Con el actual sistema de tipos de cambio de flotación dirigida, los países pueden elegir entre dejar que el tipo de cambio responda a las fuerzas de mercado y la intervención en el mercado. Aunque es tautológico que con un sistema libre de tipos de cambio flexibles no se necesitan reservas, no es posible a priori afirmar que el uso de reservas disminuirá de haber una tendencia hacia tipos de cambio más flexibles. En este trabajo se examina el uso de reservas de 14 países industriales durante un período de tipos relativamente fijos, y se comparan esas cifras con las del uso de reservas durante un período de flotación dirigida. Como no hay una definición estandarizada de uso de reservas que pueda deducirse fácilmente de los datos publicados, se han calculado varias medidas del "uso" de reservas. La obtención de resultados contradictorios con las distintas medidas pondrá de manifiesto las dificultades del análisis del problema, en tanto que la obtención de resultados concordantes con la mayoría de las medidas permitirá establecer conclusiones con cierto grado de confianza. Los resultados obtenidos con las diversas medidas indican que el uso de las reservas en el período de flotación disminuyó en 7 países y aumentó en otros 3; con respecto a los 4 países restantes, los resultados fueron ambivalentes. La conclusión general que se saca del análisis es que el uso de reservas ha disminuido en general durante el período de flotación dirigida, pero no mucho.

Suggested Citation

  • Esther C. Suss, 1976. "A Note on Reserve Use under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes (Note concernant l'utilisation des réserves sous différents régimes de taux de change) (Una nota sobre la utilización de las reservas ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 387-394, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:23:y:1976:i:2:p:387-394
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