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Currency Regimes, Capital Flows, and Crises

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  • Paul Krugman

Abstract

Ever since Greece experienced its debt crisis, fiscal discussion has been “Hellenized” — that is, there are constant warnings that other countries, including the United States, are on the verge of a similar crisis. But can countries that borrow in their own currency experience Greek-type crises? I argue, based both on evidence and on simple modeling, that the answer is no.

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  • Paul Krugman, 2014. "Currency Regimes, Capital Flows, and Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 470-493, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:4:p:470-493
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    2. Elissa Braunstein, 2018. "Financial crises among emerging and developing economies in the modern era: A brief history and some stylized themes," Chapters, in: Gerald A. Epstein (ed.), The Political Economy of International Finance in an Age of Inequality, chapter 2, pages 14-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2017. "Fixed on Flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 586-632, August.
    4. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 391-426, June.
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia & Rees, Daniel M., 2018. "Same Spain, less pain?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 78-107.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2018. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: An Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 8, pages 279-324, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    9. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2019. "The global financial resource curse," Economics Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2023.
    10. Garg, Bhavesh & Sahoo, Pravakar, 2023. "Are gross financial inflows expansionary or contractionary? Evidence from emerging economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    11. Willem THORBECKE, 2016. "Investigating the Effect of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on the ASEAN-4 Economies," Discussion papers 16070, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Mariam Camarero & Gilles Dufrénot & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "How do inequalities affect the natural interest rate, and how do they impact monetary policy? Comparing Germany, Japan and the US," Working Papers halshs-03191667, HAL.
    13. Yana Valeryevna Dyomina, 2018. "The Effect of Currency Policy on Portfolio Investments in East Asia Countries," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 74-91.
    14. Rosik, Piotr & Komornicki, Tomasz & Duma, Patryk & Goliszek, Sławomir, 2022. "The effect of border closure on road potential accessibility in the regions of the EU-27. The case of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 188-198.
    15. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    16. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Malika F. Shaikhutdinova, 2017. "Modeling of the Balance of Payments State in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 84-101, October.
    17. Peter Spahn, 2016. "Central Bank Design in a Non-optimal Currency Union A Lender of Last Resort for Government Debt?," ROME Working Papers 201610, ROME Network.
    18. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Bond Risk Premia and The Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 497-520, December.
    19. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2006, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    20. Bhavesh Garg & Pravakar Sahoo, 2021. "DO DIFFERENT TYPES OF CAPITAL INFLOWS HAVE DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT ON OUTPUT? Evidence from Time series and Panel Analysis," IEG Working Papers 443, Institute of Economic Growth.
    21. Dennis Bonam & Emmanuel De Veirman & Gavin Goy, 2020. "Should developed economies manage international capital flows?," Working Papers 702, DNB.
    22. Gábor Dávid Kiss & Mercédesz Mészáros, 2020. "Gravity Among Central Bank Balance Sheets: Monetary Policy Spill-Over on FX Volatility," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(1), pages 33-57, June.
    23. Harrison, Andre & Reed, Robert R., 2023. "Gross capital inflows, the U.S. economy, and the response of the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    24. Pablo Anaya & Alex Pienkowski, 2015. "What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/137, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.

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