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Solvency Prediction for Property-Liability Insurance Companies: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Jannes Rauch

    (Department of Risk Management and Insurance and Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, Cologne 50923, Germany.)

  • Sabine Wende

    (Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, Cologne 50923, Germany.)

Abstract

The financial crisis of 2008 generated sizeable losses in the financial sector around the world. Because regulators are used for predicting insurers’ financial strength in order to detect financially distressed firms as early as possible, we question how reliably regulators can forecast financial strength, especially during a financial crisis. We use the company-level data of German property-liability insurers from 2004 to 2011 to examine factors that affect the insurer’s regulatory solvency ratio. Furthermore, we develop a prediction model to classify the insurers regarding their financial strength. We show that, in particular, the lagged solvency ratio can be used to predict the future regulatory solvency ratio irrespective of the economic conditions. Thus, our results imply that German regulators are able to detect insurers in financial distress early enough to take appropriate actions to protect policyholders’ interests. Our results do not support the adoption of tighter regulations or higher capital requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannes Rauch & Sabine Wende, 2015. "Solvency Prediction for Property-Liability Insurance Companies: Evidence from the Financial Crisis," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 40(1), pages 47-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:40:y:2015:i:1:p:47-65
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo & Schaper, Philipp, 2017. "Get the Balance Right: A Simultaneous Equation Model to Analyze Growth, Profitability, and Safety," Working Papers on Finance 1716, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Ignacio Moreno & Purificación Parrado‐Martínez & Antonio Trujillo‐Ponce, 2020. "Economic crisis and determinants of solvency in the insurance sector: new evidence from Spain," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2965-2994, September.
    3. Yousef Abdel Latif Abdel Jawad & Issam Ayyash, 2019. "Determinants of the Solvency of Insurance Companies in Palestine," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(6), pages 188-195, October.
    4. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2018. "Business failure, efficiency, and volatility: Evidence from the European insurance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-76.
    5. Tsai-Jyh Chen, 0. "The role of distribution channels in market discipline for the life insurance industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-23.
    6. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Philipp Schaper, 2022. "The magic triangle: growth, profitability and safety in the insurance industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 321-348, April.
    7. Tsai-Jyh Chen, 2021. "The role of distribution channels in market discipline for the life insurance industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(1), pages 107-129, January.

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