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Measuring Vulnerability to U.S. Foreign Economic Sanctions

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Askari
  • John Forrer
  • Jiawen Yang
  • Tarek Hachem

Abstract

This study concentrates on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to demonstrate a way to improve the consensus forecasts of interest rates. It promotes the notion that, in improving the survey forecast accuracy of a variable, one should investigate the usefulness of the predictive information contained in the survey forecasts of other theoretically relevant variables. This idea has been applied to the SPF forecasts of the 3-month Treasury-bill rate, which are shown to be one-sided for 2001.1-2003.4. We improve the accuracy of these forecasts by exploiting the predictive information contained in the SPF forecasts of inflation and output growth. We thus recommend that the possible improvement should be investigated before such interestrate forecasts are utilized for decision-making.Business Economics (2005) 40, 41–55; doi:10.2145/20050205

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Askari & John Forrer & Jiawen Yang & Tarek Hachem, 2005. "Measuring Vulnerability to U.S. Foreign Economic Sanctions," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 41-55, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p:41-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Fanny Coulomb & Liliane Bensahel & Jacques Fontanel, 2007. "The concepts of economic war and economic conflicts in a global market economy," Post-Print hal-02043758, HAL.
    2. Omar, Ayman & Lambe, Brendan John, 2022. "Crude oil pricing and statecraft: Surprising lessons from US economic sanctions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. William Seitz, 2012. "Trade Restrictions and Conflict Commodities: Market reactions to regulations on conflict minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo," OxCarre Working Papers 102, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

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