IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v24y2023i6d10.1057_s41260-023-00323-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the nexus between price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market

Author

Listed:
  • Adeyinka Adediran

    (De Montfort University)

  • Bola Babajide

    (De Montfort University)

  • Nataliia Osina

    (De Montfort University)

Abstract

The analysis of the price–volume relationship offers valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of financial markets, enabling investors and market participants to make informed inferences based on the data derived from price and volume. This concept has extensively been studied in the stock market, while it remained understudied in the cryptocurrency trading system. The study aims to contribute to the literature by examining the causal relationship between price changes and trading volume for the top three cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether) listed on CoinMarketCap. Previous research that examined causal relationship focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, while neglecting Tether, which is often used by investors to avoid price volatility. The study employs correlation matrix, vector autoregression Model, and granger causality to conduct the analysis of the research. The data for this study were extracted from CoinMarketCap, which provides the daily closing price and 24 hours traded volume of the top three cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021. The outcome of the preliminary study suggested that there is a positive significant price–volume relationship for Bitcoin and Ethereum, while there is a negative relationship for Tether. Furthermore, the study exhibits that there is a unidirectional causality between price return and volume change of Bitcoin and Ethereum, while there is no evidence of causality for Tether. Therefore, the empirical results establish the reliability of variable forecasting, empowering market participants and investors to make informed investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeyinka Adediran & Bola Babajide & Nataliia Osina, 2023. "Exploring the nexus between price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(6), pages 498-512, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:24:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1057_s41260-023-00323-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-023-00323-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41260-023-00323-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41260-023-00323-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James C. Luu & Martin Martens, 2003. "Testing the mixture‐of‐distributions hypothesis using “realized” volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 661-679, July.
    2. L. Ureche-Rangau & Q. de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets : the chinese stock market," Post-Print hal-00581618, HAL.
    3. Fousekis, Panos & Tzaferi, Dimitra, 2021. "Returns and volume: Frequency connectedness in cryptocurrency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 13-20.
    4. Yhlas Sovbetov, 2018. "Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    6. Zhang, Wei & Bi, Zhengzheng & Shen, Dehua, 2017. "Investor structure and the price–volume relationship in a continuous double auction market: An agent-based modeling perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 345-355.
    7. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    8. Chika Anastesia Anisiuba & Obiamaka P. Egbo & Felix C. Alio & Chuka Ifediora & Ebele C. Igwemeka & C. O. Odidi & Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku, 2021. "Analysis of Cryptocurrency Dynamics in the Emerging Market Economies: Does Reinforcement or Substitution Effect Prevail?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    9. Gregor Dorfleitner & Carina Lung, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies from the perspective of euro investors: a re-examination of diversification benefits and a new day-of-the-week effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 472-494, December.
    10. Griffith, Todd & Clancey-Shang, Danjue, 2023. "Cryptocurrency regulation and market quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Pradipta Kumar Sahoo & Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Is bitcoin a near stock? Linear and non-linear causal evidence from a price–volume relationship," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 533-545, April.
    12. Darrat, Ali F. & Rahman, Shafiqur & Zhong, Maosen, 2003. "Intraday trading volume and return volatility of the DJIA stocks: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2035-2043, October.
    13. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    14. Xiaojun Song & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2019. "A Better Understanding of Granger Causality Analysis: A Big Data Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 911-936, August.
    15. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
    16. Theodore Syriopoulos & Efthimios Roumpis, 2006. "Price and volume dynamics in second-hand dry bulk and tanker shipping markets," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 497-518.
    17. Eloy Gil-Cordero & Juan Pedro Cabrera-Sánchez & Manuel Jesús Arrás-Cortés, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies as a Financial Tool: Acceptance Factors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    18. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    19. YAMAK, Nebiye & YAMAK, Rahmi & SAMUT, Serkan, 2019. "Causal Relationship Between Bitcoin Price Volatility And Trading Volume: Rolling Window Approach," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(3), pages 6-20, September.
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    21. Wen-Cheng Lu & Fang-Jun Lin, 2010. "An Empirical Study Of Volatility And Trading Volume Dynamics Using High-Frequency Data," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(3), pages 93-101.
    22. Pradipta Kumar Sahoo & Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Is bitcoin a near stock? Linear and non-linear causal evidence from a price–volume relationship," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 533-545, April.
    23. Gaiyan Zhang, 2007. "A Model of Price, Volume, and Sequential Information," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(3), pages 207-223, December.
    24. Wang, Kaiyang & Yang, Haizhen, 2018. "The price-volume relationship caused by asset allocation based on Kelly criterion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1-8.
    25. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Multifractal behavior of price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 54-61.
    26. Beata Szetela & Grzegorz Mentel & Yuriy Bilan & Urszula Mentel, 2021. "The relationship between trend and volume on the bitcoin market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 25-42, March.
    27. Richard K. Lyons & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?," NBER Working Papers 27136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pradipta Kumar Sahoo & Dinabandhu Sethi, 2024. "Market efficiency of the cryptocurrencies: Some new evidence based on price–volume relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1569-1580, April.
    2. Pengfei Wang & Wei Zhang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2019. "Trading volume and return volatility of Bitcoin market: evidence for the sequential information arrival hypothesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 377-418, June.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & Lukaz Lach & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2016. "Impact of US Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Causalities on Selected European Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 405-425, October.
    4. Beata Szetela & Grzegorz Mentel & Yuriy Bilan & Urszula Mentel, 2021. "The relationship between trend and volume on the bitcoin market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 25-42, March.
    5. Tseng, Tseng-Chan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 228-234.
    6. Carroll, Rachael & Kearney, Colm, 2015. "Testing the mixture of distributions hypothesis on target stocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Kao, Yu-Sheng & Zhao, Kai & Chuang, Hwei-Lin & Ku, Yu-Cheng, 2024. "The asymmetric relationships between the Bitcoin futures’ return, volatility, and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 524-542.
    8. Jawadi Fredj & Ureche-Rangau Loredana, 2013. "Threshold linkages between volatility and trading volume: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 313-333, May.
    9. Karima Saci, 2022. "Modelling the Relationship Between Trading Volume and Stock Returns Volatility for Islamic and Conventional Banks: The Case of Saudi Arabia نمذجة العلاقة بين حجم التداول وتقلب عوائد الأسهم للبنوك الإس," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 35(1), pages 41-55, January.
    10. Pradipta Kumar Sahoo, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and cryptocurrency markets: an empirical analysis from a linear and nonlinear causal relationship," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 454-468, March.
    11. Chien-Hung Chen & Nicholas Lee & Fu-Min Chang & Li-Peng Lan, 2021. "Are global gold futures returns volatilities and trading activities threshold cointegrated?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 525-538, May.
    12. Clement Moyo & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Re-Examining Bitcoin’s Price–Volume Relationship: A Time-Varying Spectral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Sun, Changyou, 2013. "Price variation and volume dynamics of securitized timberlands," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 44-53.
    15. Farag, Hisham & Cressy, Robert, 2011. "Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 238-254, September.
    16. Luis Lorenzo & Javier Arroyo, 2022. "Analysis of the cryptocurrency market using different prototype-based clustering techniques," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-46, December.
    17. Naeem, Muhammad & Bouri, Elie & Boako, Gideon & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Tail dependence in the return-volume of leading cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    18. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    19. Darrat, Ali F. & Zhong, Maosen & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2007. "Intraday volume and volatility relations with and without public news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2711-2729, September.
    20. Athanasios Tsagkanos & Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Christos Floros, 2021. "Does Trading Volume Drive Systemic Banks’ Stock Return Volatility? Lessons from the Greek Banking System," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:24:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1057_s41260-023-00323-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.