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Analyzing Seasonality and Forecasting the Number of Tourists’ Overnight Stays in Constanta Municipality

Author

Listed:
  • Aivaz Kamer Ainur

    (“Ovidius†University of Constanta)

  • Jugănaru Mariana

    (“Ovidius†University of Constanta)

  • Jugănaru Ion Dănut

    (“Ovidius†University of Constanta)

Abstract

Constanta is perceived as the country’s largest port-city, but also as the most visited tourist cityon the Romanian Black Sea coast. For many generations, Constanta has been the place wheremany beautiful summer holidays memories are made, being associated especially with the sea andthe sun. These aspects highlight the seasonality in tourism activities. Using an important tourist traffic indicator, the "number of overnight stays", the objectives ofthis study are to analyze the seasonality in the tourism activity in Constanta, between 2010 and2016, and to predict the evolution of this indicator, per months, for 2017. We appreciate that theresults of this research are a relevant basis for various stakeholder debates (which carry out, orare related to, tourism activities), on the choice of a strategy that would contribute to the reductionof seasonality in the tourism activity carried out in Constanta.

Suggested Citation

  • Aivaz Kamer Ainur & Jugănaru Mariana & Jugănaru Ion Dănut, 2017. "Analyzing Seasonality and Forecasting the Number of Tourists’ Overnight Stays in Constanta Municipality," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 265-270, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:xvii:y:2017:i:1:p:265-270
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    seasonality; number of overnight stays; mobile backgrounds; Gini index; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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