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Were the Crises in Eurozone Countries Predictable?

Author

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  • Dapontas Dimitrios

    (University of Central Greece)

Abstract

This paper is based on finding the characteristics that could have made the crises in weaker Eurozone economies forecastable based on lagged time series analysed as a set of binary models estimated with the extreme value approach which is suitable for irregular non stationary data on rare events. This method has been used in order to predict the possibility of rare events such as earthquakes, floods or other unpredictable by trend disasters. This methodology has major advantages compared to probit or logit approaches. The absence of currency volatility due to monetary union participation makes this crisis analysis unique and extends the definition of the possible incidents. My sample consists of four countries bailed-out by European Union and IMF joint mechanism (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland and Portugal respectively) and covers a seventeen years period (1995-2012).The results show that explanatory variables predicted the incidents of bailout.

Suggested Citation

  • Dapontas Dimitrios, 2012. "Were the Crises in Eurozone Countries Predictable?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(3), pages 1-10, Decembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:xii:y:2012:i:3:p:10
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    Cited by:

    1. Dapontas Dimitrios, 2014. "The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 149-159, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; Early Warning Systems; Extreme events;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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