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Are Confidence and Sentiment Indicators Crucial in Forecasting the Economic Growth of Romania during the Current Crisis?

Author

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  • Stoica Tiberiu

    (The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies)

Abstract

This paper outlines the importance of confidence and sentiment indicators in forecasting short-term economic growth. I used an econometric model similar to the one used by Kitchen and Monaco (2003), and I made forecasts regarding the economic growth of Romania. The model is combining different individual forecasts of GDP in order to supply a final result regarding the economic growth. I found out that confidence and sentiment indicators have a higher explanatory power as compared to other frequently used variables. Although I was not the first economist that used confidence and sentiment indicators for making projections regarding the economic growth, I consider that future research regarding forecasts of GDP should rely more on these types of indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoica Tiberiu, 2010. "Are Confidence and Sentiment Indicators Crucial in Forecasting the Economic Growth of Romania during the Current Crisis?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 756-760, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:756-760
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; economic growth; ARIMA; business surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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