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Black Market Premia, Exchange Rate Unification, and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Pinto, Brian

Abstract

World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs favor unification of official and black market exchange rates on the argument that multiple exchange rates misallocate resources. This article shows that such policy advice sometimes overlooks an important consideration: when multiple rates are a means of taxation, the widened deficit from unification increases inflation. This article uses the experience of Ghana, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone to illustrate the tradeoff between the benefits of unification for resource allocation and its costs for inflation. Copyright 1989 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinto, Brian, 1989. "Black Market Premia, Exchange Rate Unification, and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:3:y:1989:i:3:p:321-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim ONOUR, 2018. "Technical Trading Rules And Trading Signals In The Black Market For Foreign Exchange In Sudan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-31.
    2. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.
    3. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Jacky AMPROU & Elsa DURET, 1999. "Réformes, groupes d'intérêt et dépendance à l'aide : théorie et estimation économétrique," Working Papers 199907, CERDI.
    5. Eric Werker & Faisal Z. Ahmed & Charles Cohen, 2009. "How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 225-244, July.
    6. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Working Papers 876, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    7. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    8. Onour, Ibrahim, 2011. "Financial stability in small open economy under political uncertainty," MPRA Paper 29883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:aer:wpaper:107 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kaufmann, Daniel & O'Connell, Stephen, 1996. "The Macroeconomics Of Delayed Exchange Rate Unification: Theory And Evidence From Tanzania," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294377, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Kiguel, Miguel A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1994. "Parallel exchange rates in developing countries : lessons from eight case studies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1265, The World Bank.
    12. Sekkat, Khalid & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 2000. "Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 237-253, February.
    13. Ogbulu, Onyemachi Maxwell & Torbira, Lezaasi Lenee, 2017. "Transmission Effect of the Interaction between Parallel and Official Foreign Exchange Markets in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(6), pages 76-90, 06-2017.
    14. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 72-89, February.
    15. Onour, Ibrahim, 2010. "South Sudan Referundum: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Post-Secession Scenario," MPRA Paper 29897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Siaw Frimpong, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Conditions of West African Economies to External Uncertainty Shocks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Government of the United Republic of Tanzania & World Bank, 2002. "Tanzania at the Turn of the Century : Background Papers and Statistics," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14054, December.
    18. Bevan, David, 1999. "Trade Liberalization and the Budget Deficit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 653-694, November.
    19. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Douglas, Seymour, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Controls, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and the Black Market Premium," Center Discussion Papers 28514, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    20. Onour, Ibrahim & Cameron, Norman, 1997. "Parallel Market Premia and Misalignment of Official Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 15537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jean-Paul Azam, 1995. "Dollars en solde : politique de change et inflation au Nigéria (1980-1993)," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 727-737.
    22. Chen, Jianda & Choi, Samuel, 2020. "A Practical Mathematical Model For Implicit Export Taxes," Studies in Applied Economics 156, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    23. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1999. "Dollars for Sale: Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1843-1859, October.
    24. Ibrahim Onour, 2000. "Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 171-184, October.

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