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Fertility Following Natural Disasters and Epidemics in Africa
[Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration: A Survey of the Empirical Evidence]

Author

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  • Johannes Norling

Abstract

This paper uses dozens of large-scale household surveys to measure average changes in fertility following hundreds of droughts, floods, earthquakes, tropical cyclones, other storms, and epidemics in Africa between 1980 and 2016. Droughts are the largest and longest-lasting type of disaster on average, and fertility decreases by between 3.5 and 6.8 percent in the five years after droughts. Fertility changes are smaller or less clear after other types of disasters. Comparisons between countries, rather than within countries, drive these findings. There is substantial geographic heterogeneity in the direction and magnitude of the changes in fertility after disasters, driven by characteristics of the disasters and survey respondents. Fertility decreases especially after more recent droughts and in areas prone to drought. Fertility also decreases after longer floods. Fertility decreases after epidemics for women near the start and end of their childbearing careers, but increases for women in their late twenties and early thirties.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Norling, 2022. "Fertility Following Natural Disasters and Epidemics in Africa [Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration: A Survey of the Empirical Evidence]," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(4), pages 955-971.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:36:y:2022:i:4:p:955-971.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhac011
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sven Fischer, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Marriage and Childbirth: Survey-based Evidence from Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202320, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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