Predicting future publishing success among sociologists at time of hire in the US Higher education system

This article assesses the characteristics of faculty members’ publishing records at the start of a first assistant professor position in order to predict their continued publication productivity. Using data from nearly 500 US-based sociologists, we examine how indicators, such as number of published articles, the extent of sole authorship, journal placement, and doctoral pedigree, predict success in publishing. After accounting for year of PhD, primary research methodology, and demographic characteristics, the analysis finds that the total number of articles published at the time of hire is not a significant predictor of future productivity. But the number of sole-authored articles published at the time of hire is positively associated with subsequent publication. The analysis also finds that doctoral pedigree is negatively associated with the total number of articles published post-hire but positively associated with publishing in top sociology journals. The authors suggest that faculty with different doctoral origins pursue varied publishing ‘scripts’ in their careers. Sole authorship operates as a potent trigger at career onset for cumulative advantage. In the context of the reward system of science, a moral community identifies early solo work as a sign of work prowess, which begets further publishing success.