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Asset Prices in Dynamic Production Economies with Time-Varying Risk

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  • Naik, Vasanttilak

Abstract

We examine the effect of changes in output uncertainty on the price of aggregate capital and on the prices of levered claims on capital. The relation between the volatility of the marginal product of capital and the price of capital depends on the level of capital adjustment costs and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. For available estimates of this elasticity, the value of capital and risks are directly related while the value of levered equity claims on capital may be decreasing in risk. We use these results to analyze the argument that increased risk was responsible for the U.S. stock market decline of the 1970s. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Naik, Vasanttilak, 1994. "Asset Prices in Dynamic Production Economies with Time-Varying Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 781-801.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:7:y:1994:i:4:p:781-801
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, 2010. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 379-402, April.
    2. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    3. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December.
    4. Beltratti, Andrea, 2005. "Capital market equilibrium with externalities, production and heterogeneous agents," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3061-3073, December.
    5. Vassalou, Maria & Li, Qing & Xing, Yuhang, 2001. "An Investment-Growth Asset Pricing Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3058, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    7. Erik Brynjolfsson & Loren Hitt & Shinkyu Yang, 2002. "Intangible Assets: How the Interaction of Computers and Organizational Structure Affects Stock Market Valuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 137-198.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    9. Padamja Singal & Stephen D. Smith, 1999. "Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Christian Gourieroux & Razvan Sufana, 2004. "Derivative Pricing with Multivariate Stochastic Volatility : Application to Credit Risk," Working Papers 2004-31, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. Kogan, Leonid, 2004. "Asset prices and real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, September.

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