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The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

Author

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  • Sebastian Hillenbrand

Abstract

This paper documents a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings captures the entire secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the forces behind the secular decline are thought to be independent of monetary policy. Long-term bond yields decline when the Fed cuts the short rate and when the Fed lowers its long-run forecast of the federal funds rate (the “dot plot”). These results are consistent with the view that Fed announcements provide guidance about the long-run path of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Hillenbrand, 2025. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(4), pages 981-1013.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:38:y:2025:i:4:p:981-1013.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhae089
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E43; E52; G12; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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