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Which Subjective Expectations Explain Asset Prices?

Author

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  • Ricardo De la
  • Sean Myers

Abstract

We present a method for determining whether errors in expectations explain asset pricing puzzles without imposing assumptions about the error mechanism. Using accounting identities and survey forecasts, we find that errors in expected long-term inflation explain price variation, return predictability, and the rejection of the expectations hypothesis for aggregate stock and bond markets. Errors in short-term (long-term) nominal earnings growth expectations explain (do not explain) stock price variation and return predictability. The relevant errors are consistent with mistakes about the persistence of forecasted variables and the response to surprises. A simple framework based on fundamental extrapolation successfully replicates these findings. (JEL G40, G12, G14, E71)

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo De la & Sean Myers, 2024. "Which Subjective Expectations Explain Asset Prices?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1929-1978.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:37:y:2024:i:6:p:1929-1978.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhae009
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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