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Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Cycles, and Distributional Effects: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • José-Luis Peydró
  • Francesc Rodriguez-Tous
  • Jagdish Tripathy
  • Arzu Uluc

Abstract

We analyze the distributional effects of macroprudential policy on mortgage cycles by exploiting the U.K. mortgage register and a 2014 15% limit imposed on lenders’ high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages. Constrained lenders issue fewer and more expensive high-LTI mortgages, with stronger effects on low-income borrowers. Unconstrained lenders strongly substitute high-LTI loans in local areas with higher constrained lender presence, but not high-LTI loans to low-income borrowers—consistent with adverse selection problems—implying lower overall credit to low-income borrowers. Consistently, policy-affected areas experience lower house price growth postregulation and, following the Brexit referendum (negative aggregate shock), better house price growth and lower mortgage defaults for low-income borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • José-Luis Peydró & Francesc Rodriguez-Tous & Jagdish Tripathy & Arzu Uluc, 2024. "Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Cycles, and Distributional Effects: Evidence from the United Kingdom," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-760.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:37:y:2024:i:3:p:727-760.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhad070
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E5; G01; G21; G28; G51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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