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Measuring the Expected Effects of the Global Tax Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Gómez-Cram
  • Marcel Olbert
  • Holger Müller

Abstract

Over 140 countries agreed on a fundamental corporate tax reform in 2021 to be implemented in 2023 and beyond. To measure its potential effects, we study asset price changes within minutes of the reform announcements. We construct proxies for the reform’s costs regarding U.S. companies’ tax burdens and countries’ public finances. Likely exposed companies exhibit significant negative stock returns. Our lower-bound estimates indicate total shareholder value losses of $112.6 billion one day after the reform announcements. Further, likely exposed countries experience increases in sovereign debt credit risk. Our findings inform the cost-benefit analysis of a historical international tax reform.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Gómez-Cram & Marcel Olbert & Holger Müller, 2023. "Measuring the Expected Effects of the Global Tax Reform," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(12), pages 4965-5011.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:36:y:2023:i:12:p:4965-5011.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhad038
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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