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Monetary Policy Risk: Rules versus Discretion

Author

Listed:
  • David K Backus
  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Stanley E Zin
  • Irina Zviadadze

Abstract

Long-run asset pricing restrictions in a macro term structure model identify discretionary monetary policy separately from a policy rule. We find that policy discretion is an important contributor to aggregate risk. In addition, discretionary easing coincides with good news about the macroeconomy in the form of lower inflation, higher output growth, and lower risk premiums on short-term nominal bonds. However, it also coincides with bad news about long-term financial conditions in the form of higher risk premiums on long-term nominal bonds. Shocks to the rule correlate with changes in the yield curve’s level. Shocks to discretion correlate with changes in its slope.

Suggested Citation

  • David K Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E Zin & Irina Zviadadze, 2022. "Monetary Policy Risk: Rules versus Discretion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2308-2344.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:5:p:2308-2344.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab090
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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