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Models or Stars: The Role of Asset Pricing Models and Heuristics in Investor Risk Adjustment
[Which factors matter to investors? evidence from mutual fund flows]

Author

Listed:
  • Richard B Evans
  • Yang Sun

Abstract

We examine the role of factor models and simple performance heuristics in investor decision-making using Morningstar’s 2002 rating methodology change. Before the change, flows strongly correlated with CAPM alphas. After, when funds are ranked by size and book-to-market groups, flows become more sensitive to 3-factor alphas (FF3). Flows to a matched institutional sample (same managers/strategies) follow FF3 before and after the change but are unrelated to the CAPM. Placebo tests with sector funds and other factor loadings show no effects. Our results imply that improvements in simple performance heuristics can result in more sophisticated risk adjustment by retail investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard B Evans & Yang Sun, 2021. "Models or Stars: The Role of Asset Pricing Models and Heuristics in Investor Risk Adjustment [Which factors matter to investors? evidence from mutual fund flows]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 67-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:1:p:67-107.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa043
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nahid Unkic & Jasmina Okicic, 2021. "The Relationship between Decision-Making Heuristics and Perceived Quality of Life," Eurasian Journal of Business and Management, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(2), pages 90-99.
    2. Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gantchev, Nickolay & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Li, Rachel, 2024. "Sustainability or performance? Ratings and fund managers’ incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Sofia Brito-Ramos & Maria Céu Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2022. "Do sustainability signals diverge? An analysis of labeling schemes for socially responsible investments ," Working Papers hal-04064367, HAL.
    5. Siu Kai Choy & Jason Wei, 2023. "Investor Attention and Option Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4845-4863, August.
    6. Dang, Thuy Duong & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "How do corporate bond investors measure performance? Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Michel Verlaine, 2022. "Behavioral finance and the architecture of the asset management industry," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1454-1476, December.
    8. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Jiang, Christine & Wang, Xianzhen, 2024. "Portfolio pumping and dumping among Chinese mutual fund companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Yue Xu, 2022. "Reallocation of Mutual Fund Managers and Capital Raising Ability," CREATES Research Papers 2022-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Omori, Kozo & Kitamura, Tomoki, 2023. "Investor response to Morningstar's ratings, category information, and alpha in the Japanese mutual fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Tran, Anh & Wang, Pingle, 2023. "Barking up the wrong tree: Return-chasing in 401(k) plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 69-90.
    13. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

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