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Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

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  • Lieven Baele
  • Joost Driessen
  • Sebastian Ebert
  • Juan M Londono
  • Oliver G Spalt

Abstract

We develop a tractable equilibrium asset pricing model with cumulative prospect theory (CPT) preferences. Using GMM on a sample of U.S. equity index option returns, we show that by introducing a single common probability weighting parameter for both tails of the return distribution, the CPT model can simultaneously generate the otherwise puzzlingly low returns on both out-of-the-money put and out-of-the-money call options as well as the high observed variance premium. In a dynamic setting, probability weighting and time-varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time-series pattern of the variance premium. Received May 30, 2017; editorial decision August 10, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Suggested Citation

  • Lieven Baele & Joost Driessen & Sebastian Ebert & Juan M Londono & Oliver G Spalt, 2019. "Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3667-3723.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:32:y:2019:i:9:p:3667-3723.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhy127
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan M. Londono & Nancy R. Xu, 2021. "The Global Determinants of International Equity Risk Premiums," International Finance Discussion Papers 1318, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
    3. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2022. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2853-2906, October.
    4. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Pradier, Lionnel & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2023. "Biased risk perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.
    7. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    8. Nicholas C. Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 27155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2020. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Papers 2006.15312, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    10. Gupta, Nilesh & Mishra, Anil V & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Prospect theory preferences and global mutual fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    12. Maik Dierkes & Jan Krupski & Sebastian Schroen & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2024. "Volatility-dependent probability weighting and the dynamics of the pricing kernel puzzle," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-35, April.
    13. Nawalkha, Sanjay K & Zhuo, Xiaoyang, 2020. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Expected Prices of Contingent Claims," OSF Preprints hsxtu, Center for Open Science.
    14. Benjamin L. Collier & Daniel Schwartz & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2022. "Insuring large stakes: A normative and descriptive analysis of households' flood insurance coverage," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 273-310, June.
    15. Hollstein, Fabian & Sejdiu, Vulnet, 2023. "Probability distortions, collectivism, and international stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

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