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A Recovery that We Can Trust? Deducing and Testing the Restrictions of the Recovery Theorem

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  • Gurdip Bakshi
  • Fousseni Chabi-Yo
  • Xiaohui Gao

Abstract

How reliable is the recovery theorem of Ross (2015)? We explore this question in the context of options on the 30-year Treasury bond futures, allowing us to deduce restrictions that link the physical and risk-neutral return distributions. Our empirical results undermine the implications of the recovery theorem. First, we reject an implicit assumption of the recovery theorem that the martingale component of the stochastic discount factor is identical to unity. Second, we consider the restrictions between the physical and risk-neutral return moments when the recovery theorem holds, and reject them in both forecasting regressions and generalized method of moments estimations. Received November 7, 2016; editorial decision July 24, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurdip Bakshi & Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Xiaohui Gao, 2018. "A Recovery that We Can Trust? Deducing and Testing the Restrictions of the Recovery Theorem," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 532-555.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:2:p:532-555.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx108
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Ian W. R. & Ross, Stephen A., 2019. "Notes on the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 689-702.
    2. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens & King Wang, 2020. "Bilateral multiple gamma returns: Their risks and rewards," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Dillschneider, Yannick & Maurer, Raimond, 2019. "Functional Ross recovery: Theoretical results and empirical tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Shinmi Ahn & Hyungbin Park, 2020. "Examining the Feasibility of the Sturm–Liouville Theory for Ross Recovery," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Menner, Marco, 2020. "Does the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 723-739.
    6. Kiriu, Takuya & Hibiki, Norio, 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on risk, preference, and risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 842-857.
    7. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2018. "Long-term factorization in Heath–Jarrow–Morton models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 621-641, July.

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