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External Habit in a Production Economy: A Model of Asset Prices and Consumption Volatility Risk

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  • Andrew Y. Chen

Abstract

A standard real business-cycle model with external habit and capital adjustment costs matches a long list of asset price and business-cycle moments: equity, firm value, and risk-free rate volatility; the equity premium; excess return predictability; consumption growth predictability; basic moments of consumption, output, and investment; among others. The model also generates endogenous consumption volatility risk. Precautionary savings motives make consumption sensitive to shocks in bad times, leading to countercyclical volatility, even with homoscedastic technology shocks. Habit acts as countercyclical leverage, which amplifies this channel. Habit also implies high risk aversion, which amplifies the stock price response.Received April 21, 2016; editorial decision February 3, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Y. Chen, 2017. "External Habit in a Production Economy: A Model of Asset Prices and Consumption Volatility Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2890-2932.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:8:p:2890-2932.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx047
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Hang & Zhang, Lu, 2022. "Searching for the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 897-926.
    2. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2022. "Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It," Working Papers 22-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    4. Weiwei Liu, 2019. "An empirical study of the risk-free rate and the expected consumption growth," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(6), pages 1-5.
    5. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.
    6. Adriana Grasso & Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Consumption volatility risk and the inversion of the yield curve," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1169, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Fehrle, Daniel & Heiberger, Christopher, 2024. "The return on everything and the business cycle in production economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Chen, Qi-An & Li, Huashi & Lin, Jianyi & Yan, Youliang, 2023. "Asset pricing with two types of heterogeneous consumption volatilities in mind: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    11. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Equilibrium variance risk premium in a cost-free production economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 42-60.
    12. David Alaminos & Ignacio Esteban & M. Belén Salas, 2023. "Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 57-75, April.
    13. Babiak, Mykola & Kozhan, Roman, 2024. "Parameter learning in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Mahdi Nezafat & Ctirad Slavik, 2021. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Liquidity Shocks," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp711, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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