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Where’s the Kink? Disappointment Events in Consumption Growth and Equilibrium Asset Prices

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  • Stefanos Delikouras

Abstract

I propose a consumption-based asset pricing model with disappointment aversion to investigate the link between downside consumption risk and expected returns across asset markets. I find that the disappointment model can explain 95% of the cross-sectional variation in size/book-to-market portfolios and more than 80% of the variation in the joint sample of stocks, bonds, and commodity futures. I also show that the performance of the disappointment model is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor specification, regardless of the sample frequency (annual, quarterly). Overall, my results indicate that disappointment aversion considerably improves the fit of consumption-based asset pricing models.Received November 27, 2014; editorial decision September 18, 2016 by Editor Stefan Nagel.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefanos Delikouras, 2017. "Where’s the Kink? Disappointment Events in Consumption Growth and Equilibrium Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2851-2889.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:8:p:2851-2889.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Farago, Adam & Tédongap, Roméo, 2018. "Downside risks and the cross-section of asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 69-86.
    2. Ashley Lim & Yihui Lan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2020. "Asset pricing and energy consumption risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3813-3850, December.
    3. Chen, Qi-An & Li, Huashi & Lin, Jianyi & Yan, Youliang, 2023. "Asset pricing with two types of heterogeneous consumption volatilities in mind: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Patrick Augustin & Roméo Tédongap, 2021. "Disappointment Aversion, Term Structure, and Predictability Puzzles in Bond Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6266-6293, October.
    5. Ilan Cooper & Liang Ma & Paulo Maio, 2022. "What Does the Cross‐Section Tell About Itself? Explaining Equity Risk Premia with Stock Return Moments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 73-118, February.
    6. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    7. Song, Pengcheng & Ma, Xinxin & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Qin, 2021. "The influence of the SARS pandemic on asset prices," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Hasler, Michael & Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2018. "Fluctuating attention and financial contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 106-123.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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