IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rfinst/v30y2017i2p631-666..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Risky Is Consumption in the Long-Run? Benchmark Estimates from a Robust Estimator

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Dew-Becker

Abstract

The long-run standard deviation (LRSD) of consumption growth is a key moment in determining risk premiums under Epstein-Zin preferences. Standard estimators of the LRSD are biased downward and have poor confidence interval coverage, making them overreject the long-run risk model. This paper studies a new estimator with smaller bias and accurate confidence intervals. Standard long-run risk calibrations are still rejected in the data. The LRSD of consumption growth in the postwar sample is estimated to be 2.5% per year with an upper bound to the 95% confidence interval of 4.9%. These values can be taken as benchmarks for future calibrations.Received October 29, 2014; accepted February 18, 2016 by Editor Leonid Kogan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Dew-Becker, 2017. "How Risky Is Consumption in the Long-Run? Benchmark Estimates from a Robust Estimator," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 631-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:2:p:631-666.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhw015
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barunik, Jozef & Vacha, Lukas, 2018. "Do co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 97-119.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Consistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 215-244.
    3. Breugem, Matthijs & Marfè, Roberto, 2020. "Long-run versus short-run news and the term structure of equity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:2:p:631-666.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.