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Are Stocks Real Assets? Sticky Discount Rates in Stock Markets

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  • Michael Katz
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Lars Nielsen

Abstract

Local stock markets adjust sluggishly to changes in local inflation. When the local rate of inflation increases, local investors subsequently earn lower real returns on local stocks, but not on local bonds or foreign stocks, suggesting that local stock market investors use sticky long-run nominal discount rates that are too low when inflation increases because they are slow to update the inflation expectations in discount rates. Small amounts of stickiness in inflation expectations suffice to match the real stock return predictability induced by inflation in the data. We also consider other explanations, such as nominal cash flow extrapolation.Received September 14, 2015; editorial decision June 30, 2016 by Editor Stefan Nagel.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig & Lars Nielsen, 2017. "Are Stocks Real Assets? Sticky Discount Rates in Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 539-587.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:2:p:539-587.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhw072
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dumas, Bernard & Savioz, Marcel René, 2020. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Maryam Farboodi & Adrien Matray & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Where Has All the Data Gone?," NBER Working Papers 26927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
    4. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    5. Bernard Dumas & Marcel Savioz, 2023. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1615-1657.
    6. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Xie, Jin, 2023. "Undisclosed material inflation risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 82-100.
    7. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2022. "Momentum-Managed Equity Factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
    9. Jordan Brooks & Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 25127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
    11. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    12. Maryam Farboodi & Adrien Matray & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2022. "Where Has All the Data Gone?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(7), pages 3101-3138.
    13. Pierlauro Lopez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Q Theory and the Link Between Inflation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 85-105, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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