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Misvaluing Innovation

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  • Lauren Cohen
  • Karl Diether
  • Christopher Malloy

Abstract

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market appears to ignore the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the same in R&D can have quite divergent, but predictably divergent, future paths based on their past track records. A long-short portfolio strategy that takes advantage of the information in past track records earns abnormal returns of roughly 11% annually. Importantly, these past track records also predict divergent future real outcomes in patents, patent citations, and new product innovations. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren Cohen & Karl Diether & Christopher Malloy, 2013. "Misvaluing Innovation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 635-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:635-666
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhs183
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