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The Causal Effect of Mortgage Refinancing on Interest Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Implications

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  • Jefferson Duarte

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of mortgage-backed security (MBS) hedging activity on interest rate volatility and proposes a model that takes these effects into account. An empirical examination suggests that the inclusion of information about MBSs considerably improves model performance in pricing interest rate options and in forecasting future interest rate volatility. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that MBS hedging affects the interest rate volatility implied by both options and the actual interest rate volatility. The results also indicate that the inclusion of information about the MBS universe may result in models that better describe the price of fixed-income securities. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jefferson Duarte, 2008. "The Causal Effect of Mortgage Refinancing on Interest Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Implications," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1689-1731, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:4:p:1689-1731
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhm062
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheyao Pan, 2018. "A state‐price volatility index for the U.S. government bond market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 573-597, November.
    2. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2013. "Mortgage Hedging in Fixed Income Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp722, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
    4. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
    5. Nina Boyarchenko & Andreas Fuster & David O Lucca, 2019. "Understanding Mortgage Spreads," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3799-3850.
    6. Lan-chih Ho & John Cadle & Michael Theobald, 2022. "Portfolio Insurance Strategies," Springer Books, in: Cheng-Few Lee & Alice C. Lee (ed.), Encyclopedia of Finance, edition 0, chapter 62, pages 1437-1465, Springer.
    7. Duyvesteyn, Johan & de Zwart, Gerben, 2015. "Riding the swaption curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 57-75.
    8. Hui Chen & Michael Michaux & Nikolai Roussanov, 2020. "Houses as ATMs: Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 323-375, February.
    9. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2016. "Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1220-1253.
    10. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    11. Sabrina Pellerin & Steven Sabol & John R. Walter, 2013. "mREITs and their risks," Working Paper 13-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Gill, Balbinder Singh, 2024. "COVID-19 mortality risk premium and the interest rate on mortgage loans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Gill, Balbinder Singh, 2023. "Health uninsurance premium and mortgage interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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