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Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market

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  • Luo, Guo Ying

Abstract

While the literature usually justifies informational efficiency in the context of rationality, this article shows informational efficiency by applying the evolutionary idea of natural selection. In a dynamic futures market, speculators are assumed to merely act upon their predetermined trading types (buyer or seller), their predetermined fractions of wealth allocated for speculation, and their inherent abilities to predict the spot price, reflected in their distributions of prediction errors with respect to the spot price. This article shows that the proportion of time that the futures price equals the spot price converges to one with probability 1. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Guo Ying, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 647-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:11:y:1998:i:3:p:647-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Cronqvist, Henrik & Siegel, Stephan, 2014. "The genetics of investment biases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 215-234.
    2. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    3. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January.
    4. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2015. "Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 557-579.
    5. Luo, Guo Ying, 2003. "Evolution, efficiency and noise traders in a one-sided auction market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 163-197, April.
    6. Haase, Marco & Huss, Matthias, 2018. "Guilty speculators? Range-based conditional volatility in a cross-section of wheat futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 29-46.
    7. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Andrew Lo & Emanuele Viola, 2011. "A computational view of market efficiency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 1043-1050.
    8. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    9. Darong Dai, 2014. "The Long-Run Behavior of Consumption and Wealth Dynamics in Complete Financial Market with Heterogeneous Investors," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-16, July.
    10. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M. & Roberts, Helen, 2019. "A novel market efficiency index for energy futures and their term structure risk premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 23-33.
    11. Luo, Guo Ying, 2012. "Conservative traders, natural selection and market efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 310-335.
    12. Darong Dai, 2013. "Wealth Martingale and Neighborhood Turnpike Property In Dynamically Complete Market With Heterogeneous Investors," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 86-110, December.
    13. Dai, Darong, 2011. "Wealth Martingale and Neighborhood Turnpike Property in Dynamically Complete Market with Heterogeneous Investors," MPRA Paper 46416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Funk, Samuel M. & Zook, James E. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6811, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2020. "Cobweb price dynamics under the presence of agricultural futures market: theoretical analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(2), pages 131-162, June.

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