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Asset Growth and Stock Market Returns: A Time-Series Analysis

Author

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  • Quan Wen

Abstract

I find that aggregate asset growth constructed from bottom-up data negatively predicts future market returns both in and out-of-sample and this result is robust across G7 countries. I further show that aggregate asset growth contains information about future market returns not captured by traditional macroeconomic variables and other measures of investment or growth. The forecasting ability of asset growth is strongly correlated with its propensity to predict more optimistic analyst forecasts and subsequent downward revisions, earnings surprise, and systematic errors in investors’ expectations. The time-varying risk premium also appears key in explaining the documented return predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Quan Wen, 2019. "Asset Growth and Stock Market Returns: A Time-Series Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 599-628.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:23:y:2019:i:3:p:599-628.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfy018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "How is the change in left-tail risk priced in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.
    3. Chen, Jian & Tang, Guohao & Yao, Jiaquan & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Employee sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Chue, Timothy K. & Xu, Jin Karen, 2022. "Profitability, asset investment, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Hui Guo & Buhui Qiu, 2023. "Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 251-295, February.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Raza, Muhammad Wajid, 2020. "The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 177-199.
    8. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2021. "Aggregate expected investment growth and stock market returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 618-638.
    9. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset growth; Return predictability; Time-varying risk premium; Forecast errors; extrapolation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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