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Exploring Mispricing in the Term Structure of CDS Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Jarrow
  • Haitao Li
  • Xiaoxia Ye
  • May Hu

Abstract

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts. Our empirical results show that the trading strategy exhibits abnormally large returns, confirming the existence and persistence of a mispricing. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the mispricing is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. When implemented on the Markit data, the strategy shows significant economic value even after controlling for realistic transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Jarrow & Haitao Li & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2019. "Exploring Mispricing in the Term Structure of CDS Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 161-198.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:23:y:2019:i:1:p:161-198.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfy014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Thiago Ramos, 2024. "Estimating time-varying factors’ variance in the string-term structure model with stochastic volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    2. Realdon, Marco, 2024. "The efficiency of the Estr overnight index swap market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Alper Hekimoglu & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2023. "Statistical arbitrage: factor investing approach," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(4), pages 1295-1331, December.
    4. Hu, May & Park, Jason & Chen, Jane & Verhoevenc, Peter, 2022. "Cross-market informed trading in the CDS and option markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Hu, May & Narayan, Paresh & Park, Jason & Verhoeven, Peter, 2022. "Informed trading in the CDS and OTM put option markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 353-367.
    6. Hu, May & Tuilautala, Mataiasi & Yang, Jingjing & Zhong, Qian, 2022. "Asymmetric information and inside management trading in the Chinese market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Manuel Ammann & Mathis Mörke, 2019. "Credit Variance Risk Premiums," Working Papers on Finance 1908, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Kato, Kensuke & Nakamura, Nobuhiro, 2023. "Cointegration analysis of hazard rates and CDSs: Applications to pairs trading strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 612(C).
    10. Ye, Xiaoxia & Yu, Fan & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Credit derivatives and corporate default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Mispricing; Statistical arbitrage; Affine models; Market-neutral strategy; Hedge funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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