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Equilibrium Predictability, Term Structure of Equity Premia, and Other Return Characteristics

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  • Satadru Hore

Abstract

This article presents a structural model of aggregate return characteristics based on a one-channel Bansal and Yaron (2004) economy under recursive preferences. The results rest on an endogenously determined price–dividend ratio that is not exponentially affine, which implies time-variation and predictability of equity premia. The predictability coefficient itself is stochastic. This provides theoretical foundations for recent works in predictability like Dangl and Halling (2011). In longer horizons, the predictability relationship is highly volatile making it difficult to make inferences about long-horizon predictability.

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  • Satadru Hore, 2015. "Equilibrium Predictability, Term Structure of Equity Premia, and Other Return Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 423-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:423-466.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
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    6. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    7. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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    10. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    11. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    12. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
    13. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
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    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
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