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Non-Markov Gaussian Term Structure Models: The Case of Inflation

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  • Bruno Feunou
  • Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

Abstract

Standard Gaussian term structure models impose the Markov property: the conditional mean is a function of the risk factors. We relax this assumption and consider models where yields are linear in the conditional mean (but not in the risk factors). To illustrate, yields should span expected inflation but not inflation. Second, expected and surprise yield changes can have opposite contemporaneous effects on expected inflation. Third, the survey forecasts and inflation rate can both be in the state. These three features are inconsistent with the Markov assumption. These effects matter empirically in the USA and in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2014. "Non-Markov Gaussian Term Structure Models: The Case of Inflation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1953-2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:18:y:2014:i:5:p:1953-2001.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfu017
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    Cited by:

    1. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    2. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.
    3. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1413-1439, March.
    4. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & James Kyeong & Jesus Sierra, 2015. "Foreign Flows and Their Effects on Government of Canada Yields," Staff Analytical Notes 15-1, Bank of Canada.

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