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Asymmetric Momentum Effects Under Uncertainty

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  • David Kelsey
  • Roman Kozhan
  • Wei Pang

Abstract

This paper studies asymmetric profitability of the momentum trading strategy. When investors face Knightian uncertainty, they react differently to past winners and losers, which creates asymmetric patterns in price continuations. This asymmetry increases with the level of market and idiosyncratic uncertainty relating to the fundamental value of stocks. We provide a model explaining this phenomenon and empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis. Our results also imply that momentum is more likely to continue for downward trends in a highly uncertain market. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kelsey & Roman Kozhan & Wei Pang, 2010. "Asymmetric Momentum Effects Under Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 603-631.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:603-631
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfq021
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    Cited by:

    1. Tarik Driouchi & Lenos Trigeorgis & Raymond H. Y. So, 2018. "Option implied ambiguity and its information content: Evidence from the subprime crisis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 463-491, March.
    2. Mohamed S. Ahmed & John A. Doukas, 2021. "Revisiting disposition effect and momentum: a quantile regression perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1087-1128, April.
    3. Flavia Barsotti, 2012. "Optimal Capital Structure with Endogenous Default and Volatility Risk," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2012-02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    4. J. Ford & D. Kelsey & W. Pang, 2013. "Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 1-15, July.
    5. P. Simmons & N. Tantisantiwong, 2014. "Equilibrium moment restrictions on asset returns: normal and crisis periods," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1064-1089, November.
    6. Asano, Takao & Osaki, Yusuke, 2021. "Optimal investment under ambiguous technology shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 304-311.
    7. Philipp K. Illeditsch & Jayant V. Ganguli & Scott Condie, 2021. "Information Inertia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 443-479, February.
    8. Antoniou, Constantinos & Harris, Richard D.F. & Zhang, Ruogu, 2015. "Ambiguity aversion and stock market participation: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 57-70.
    9. Takao Asano & Yusuke Osaki, 2020. "Portfolio allocation problems between risky and ambiguous assets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 63-79, January.

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