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Trade Finance and the Durability of the Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Chahrour
  • Rosen Valchev

Abstract

We propose a model in which the emergence of a single dominant currency is driven by the need to finance international trade. The model generates multiple stable steady states, each characterized by a different dominant asset, consistent with the historical durability of real-world currency regimes. The persistence of regimes is caused by a positive interaction between the returns to saving in an asset and the use of that asset for financing trade. A calibrated version of the model shows that the welfare gains of dominance are substantial, but accrue primarily during the transition to dominance. We perform several counterfactual experiments to assess potential threats to the dollar’s continued dominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2022. "Trade Finance and the Durability of the Dollar," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1873-1910.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:4:p:1873-1910.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdab072
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "The Economics of Liquidity Lines Between Central Banks," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 57-74, November.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    5. Lu, Dong & Mu, Yuhao, 2023. "A parsimonious model of trade, finance and endogenous currency choices in international reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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