IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rasset/v8y2018i1p36-76..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate Tail Risk and Expected Returns

Author

Listed:
  • David A Chapman
  • Michael F Gallmeyer
  • J Spencer Martin

Abstract

Do stocks bear a crash risk premium? We examine the empirical performance of the tail index measure from Kelly and Jiang (2014). We find that the tail index explains the cross-section of the discount rate component of returns, but not the cash-flow component. Moreover, in the time series the tail index is uncorrelated with theoretically motivated measures of aggregate uncertainty and systemic risk. In contrast, the tail index Granger causes and is Granger caused by the level of the term structure, and the slope of the term structure Granger causes tail risk.Received June 22, 2016; editorial decision December 23, 2017 by Editor Raman Uppal.

Suggested Citation

  • David A Chapman & Michael F Gallmeyer & J Spencer Martin, 2018. "Aggregate Tail Risk and Expected Returns," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 36-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:8:y:2018:i:1:p:36-76.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/ray002
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prodosh Simlai, 2021. "Accrual mispricing, value-at-risk, and expected stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1487-1517, November.
    2. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    3. Zhijun Hu & Ping‐Wen Sun, 2021. "Connectedness among stocks and tail risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1179-1202, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:8:y:2018:i:1:p:36-76.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/raps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.