IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rasset/v15y2025i1p1-45..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Superstitious” Investors

Author

Listed:
  • Hongye Guo
  • Jessica A Wachter

Abstract

We reconsider the excess volatility puzzle through the lens of a model in which agents believe they can predict dividend growth when in fact they cannot. Besides excess volatility in the time series, the model explains the value premium, and the explanatory power of the value factor. In support of the model, we show that analysts’ earnings forecasts align with market valuation and that analysts are far more optimistic about growth stocks than they are about value stocks. Using both survey and price data, we show that the same mechanism can explain the excess returns earned by investing in high-interest rate currencies. (JEL G12, G15, G41)

Suggested Citation

  • Hongye Guo & Jessica A Wachter, 2025. "“Superstitious” Investors," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:15:y:2025:i:1:p:1-45.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raae013
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:15:y:2025:i:1:p:1-45.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/raps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.