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Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable
[Uncovering hedge fund skill from the portfolio holdings they hide]

Author

Listed:
  • Liyan Yang
  • Haoxiang Zhu

Abstract

Market prices are noisy signals of economic fundamentals. In a two-period model, we show that if the central bank uses market prices as guidance for intervention, large strategic investors who benefit from high prices would depress market prices to induce a market-supportive intervention. Stronger anticipated interventions lead to deeper price depressions preintervention and sharper price reversals post-intervention. The central bank intervention harms strategic investors even though it is the investors who tried to mislead the central bank. The model predicts a V-shaped price pattern around central bank interventions, consistent with recent evidence. (JEL G14, G18)

Suggested Citation

  • Liyan Yang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2021. "Strategic Trading When Central Bank Intervention Is Predictable [Uncovering hedge fund skill from the portfolio holdings they hide]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 735-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:11:y:2021:i:4:p:735-761.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raab011
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hugues Dastarac, 2021. "Strategic Trading, Welfare and Prices with Futures Contracts," Working papers 841, Banque de France.
    2. Cetemen, D. & Cisternas, G. & Kolb, A. & Viswanathan, S., 2022. "Activist Manipulation Dynamics," Working Papers 22/04, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. Takahiro Hattori & Jiro Yoshida, 2023. "Yield Curve Control," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 403-438, December.
    4. Guo, Qi & Huang, Shao’an & Wang, Gaowang, 2024. "Stabilizing the financial markets through communication and informed trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Guo, Qi & Huang, Shao'an & Wang, Gaowang, 2022. "Stabilizing the Financial Markets through Informed Trading," MPRA Paper 115470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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