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Earnings Expectations during the COVID-19 Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Augustin Landier
  • David Thesmar
  • Jeffrey Pontiff

Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of earnings forecasts and discount rates implicit in valuations during the COVID-19 crisis. Forecasts over 2020 earnings have been progressively reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts have reacted much less. We estimate an implicit discount rate going from 8.5% in mid-February to 11% at the end of March and reverting to its initial level in mid-May. Over the period, the unlevered asset risk premium increases by 50bp, the leverage effect also increases by 50bp, while the risk free rate decreases by 100bp. Hence, analysts’ forecast revisions explain all of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid-May 2020.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin Landier & David Thesmar & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "Earnings Expectations during the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 598-617.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:10:y::i:4:p:598-617.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raaa016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lars Peter Hansen, 0. "Repercussions of Pandemics on Markets and Policy," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 569-573.
    2. Stephen J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2020. "Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," Working Papers 2020-156, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    4. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Garel, Alexandre & Petit-Romec, Arthur, 2021. "Investor rewards to environmental responsibility: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Nils Engelhardt & Jens Ekkenga & Peter Posch, 2021. "ESG Ratings and Stock Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    7. Neukirchen, Daniel & Engelhardt, Nils & Krause, Miguel & Posch, Peter N., 2022. "Firm efficiency and stock returns during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Benjamin Knox & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Paul Anglin & Jianxin Cui & Yanmin Gao & Li Zhang, 2021. "Analyst Forecasts during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from REITs," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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