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The Periodogram of American Business Activity

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  • Edwin B. Wilson

Abstract

I. Various meanings of "period," 376. — II. Indices referred to "normal" are oscillatory, 378. — III. Statistical findings of cycle analysis, 380. — IV. Hidden periods indeterminable by cycle analysis, 384. — V. The periodogram; general theory, 387. — VI. Periodograms of special types of oscillation, 390. — VII. Illustration of effects of complex interference, 394. — VIII. Two rules and their limitations, 397. — IX. The periodograms for business activity, 400. — X. Details of the periodogram for 1790–1859, 400. — XI. Brief notes on the other periodograms, 405. — XII. Forecasting from the sinusoidal expressions, 407. — XIII. Schuster's statistical test for significance of periods, 409. — XIV. The number of "independent elements" in the series, 411. — XV. A crucial experiment, 413.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin B. Wilson, 1934. "The Periodogram of American Business Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 48(3), pages 375-417.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:48:y:1934:i:3:p:375-417.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1882821
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    Cited by:

    1. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    2. Robert W. Dimand, 2020. "Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 564-581, July.
    3. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.

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