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Prices and the Quantity of Circulating Medium, 1890–1921

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  • Holbrook Working

Abstract

An attempt to find a method for forecasting price changes develops important theoretical conclusions. — The quantity theory of money furnishes a basis for an hypothesis (229), a test of which requires an index number of general price level, an index number of total circulating medium, and an index number of the normal value of V/T, 234. — The reciprocal of the latter is an index of the circulating medium necessary to maintain a constant price level, 239. — From the index number of circulating medium and the index number of the normal value of V is calculated an index number of normal price level, 000. — This index number compared with the index number of actual price level, 1890–1916, shows a good correlation with a lag apparently slightly less than one year, 242; which substantiates the original hypothesis, as applied to that period, 245. — The hypothesis, however, does not explain the price changes of 1917–20, 246. — Some related conclusions, 248.— Supplementary note, 252. — Appendix: Construction of the index number of circulating medium, 253.

Suggested Citation

  • Holbrook Working, 1923. "Prices and the Quantity of Circulating Medium, 1890–1921," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 37(2), pages 228-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:37:y:1923:i:2:p:228-256.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1883930
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Su, Liting, 2015. "The Use of Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Nominal GDP Targeting," MPRA Paper 67040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peter Kugler & Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2020. "Money, inflation and the financial crisis: the case of Switzerland," Working Papers 2020-16, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2022. "Strengthening the second pillar: a greater role for money in the ECB’s strategy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 99-114, January.
    5. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    6. Peter Kugler & Samuel Reynard, 2022. "Money and inflation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-13, December.

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