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Modelling the Price of Oil

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  • Bacon, Robert W

Abstract

This paper surveys the problem of modelling the determination of the price of crude oil. It discusses the need to define the price used and its relation to other related prices (such as the price of refined products). The factors determining the demand for oil, the supply of oil by OPEC and non-OPEC countries, and the behavior of stocks are discussed. Finally, some forecasts are presented and general conclusions are drawn on the difficulties of forecasting this series. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacon, Robert W, 1991. "Modelling the Price of Oil," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 17-34, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:17-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramesh Bollapragada & Akash Mankude & V. Udayabhanu, 2021. "Forecasting the price of crude oil," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 207-231, June.
    2. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni & Piersanti, Mirko & Cicone, Antonio & Canofari, Paolo & Di Domizio, Marco, 2020. "An inquiry into the structure and dynamics of crude oil price using the fast iterative filtering algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    5. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
    6. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
    7. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
    8. Zhang, Xun & Lai, K.K. & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2008. "A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 905-918, May.

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