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The future of fossil fuels—is it the end?

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  • Dieter Helm

Abstract

Contrary to the assumptions underlying many of current energy and climate policies, the prices of fossil fuels have fallen and may remain at the new ‘normal’ levels. In the medium term, Iran and Iraq have considerable potential to increase their outputs, and the new shale technologies will gradually globalize. Longer term, new technologies in electricity generation, storage, and smart demand-side technologies, together with electric cars and the shift towards digitalization and new electricity-based technologies in manufacturing, will increase demand for electricity, but not fossil fuels. These new and emerging technologies, rather than international agreements and the promotion of current generation renewables, will probably bring fossil fuel dominance to a gradual close. To facilitate decarbonization, energy policy should be directed at enhancing R&D and next generation renewables, instead of supporting existing ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Helm, 2016. "The future of fossil fuels—is it the end?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(2), pages 191-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:191-205.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grw015
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    Cited by:

    1. Tarek Safwat Kabel & Mohga Bassim, 2020. "Reasons for Shifting and Barriers to Renewable Energy: A Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 89-94.
    2. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2020. "Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Luo, Shuai & Jain, Akshay & Aguilera, Anibal & He, Zhen, 2017. "Effective control of biohythane composition through operational strategies in an innovative microbial electrolysis cell," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 879-886.
    4. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    5. Fredy Eduardo Cante-Maldonado, 2018. "Renta negativa y decrecimiento económico," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 37(65), pages 53-74, February.
    6. Krupa, Joel & Poudineh, Rahmatallah & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2019. "Renewable electricity finance in the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa: A case study on the Gulf Cooperation Council," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1047-1062.

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