Inclusive green growth in India’s aspirational democracy

This paper critically examines the feasibility and desirability of green growth in India. Currently, its environment is being plundered at all levels, local, national, and global. The stresses that result raise the fundamental question of whether the aspirations of Indians for greater material comfort can ever be fulfilled. The current 5-year plan aims for ‘Faster and More Inclusive Sustainable Growth’ but it is clear that the emphasis of the Plan is mostly on growth and inclusion, rather than sustainability. A modelling exercise reported here suggests that a ‘visionary development’ growth scenario with major social and environmental benefits is possible for India at low cost. However, combining that scenario with a low-carbon growth trajectory consistent with international aspirations to limit climate change would be significantly more expensive. As it is not clear that the Indian people would be willing to bear these extra costs, some combination of accelerated low-carbon innovation, technology transfer from developed countries, and climate finance from outside the country will be needed if green growth is to take root in India.