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Why are some African countries succeeding in their democratic transitions while others are failing?

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  • Dramane Coulibaly
  • Luc Désiré Omgba

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the disparities in the levels of democracy in Africa. Taking the end of the Cold War as a quasi-natural experiment for African countries, we find a robust positive relationship between the share of the emigrant population in the 1970s–1980s and the outcome of democratic transitions in the countries of origin of emigrants. Additionally, the effect of emigration on democracy decreases according to the duration of the migrant population in the host countries: the longer the duration of the migrant population, the greater the impact on democracy, ceteris paribus. The supportive evidence demonstrates that a larger population of emigrants enabled citizens to develop an independent civil society. In contrast, a small emigrant population during autocratic rule did not allow such development. In this case, the incumbents retained their bargaining power and determined the agenda of the transitions; consequently, institutional changes were less likely to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Dramane Coulibaly & Luc Désiré Omgba, 2021. "Why are some African countries succeeding in their democratic transitions while others are failing?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 151-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:1:p:151-177.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpz055
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    Cited by:

    1. Tii N. Nchofoung & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou & Ofeh M. Edoh, 2022. "Gender political inclusion and democracy in Africa: some empirical evidence," Working Papers 22/051, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    2. Tii N. Nchofoung & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou & Ofeh M. Edoh, 2021. "Political inclusion and democracy in Africa: some empirical evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/091, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Asngar, Thierry Mamadou & Nkoa, Bruno Emmanuel Ongo & Zambo, Charles Christian Atangana, 2022. "Does colonisation explain the low level of growth in African financial markets?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    4. Colin O'Reilly, 2021. "Violent conflict and institutional change," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 257-317, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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