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Budgetary Policies, Foreign Indebtedness, the Stock Market, and Economic Growth

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  • van der Ploeg, Frederick

Abstract

This paper analyzes a small open economy with overlapping generations, endogenous growth, and a risk premium on foreign debt. A balanced-budget increase in public consumption or a rise in government debt raises the ratio of foreign debt to domestic income and the interest rate but depresses economic growth. Supply-side policies aimed at internalizing production externalities boost foreign indebtedness, the interest rate, and economic growth. A higher global interest rate leads, if initial foreign indebtedness is not too large, to a lower foreign debt and, if a country is dragged down by large levels of foreign debt, lower economic growth. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1996. "Budgetary Policies, Foreign Indebtedness, the Stock Market, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 382-396, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:48:y:1996:i:3:p:382-96
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Working Paper Research 05, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Sharri Byron, 2012. "Examining Foreign Aid Fungibility in Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 675-712, September.
    3. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
    4. Shaw, Ming-Fu & Lai, Ching-Chong & Chang, Wen-Ya, 2005. "Anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 719-743, September.
    5. Theo S. Eicher & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Uwe Walz, 2000. "Optimal Policy for Financial Market Liberalizations: Decentralization and Capital Flow Reversals," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 19-42, February.
    6. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    7. Chung, Keunsuk & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 201-223, March.
    8. Nyambuu, Unurjargal & Semmler, Willi, 2017. "Emerging markets’ resource booms and busts, borrowing risk and regime change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 29-42.
    9. Belloc, Marianna & Federici, Daniela, 2010. "A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, March.
    10. Maria João Ribeiro Thompson, 2003. "Complementarities, Costly Investment and Multiple Equilibria in a One-Sector Endogenous Growth Model," NIPE Working Papers 7/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Theo S Eicher & Uwe Walz & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversals:," Working Papers 0003, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    12. Lai, Ching-Chong & Chin, Chi-Ting, 2013. "Monetary Rules And Endogenous Growth In An Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 431-463, March.
    13. Marcelo Bianconi & Walter H. Fisher, 2014. "Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 116-130, February.
    14. Fabienne Lara Dascher, 2020. "Sustainable Debt Policy Rules and Growth in a Small Open Economy Model: Is a Balanced Government Budget Worthwhile?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 373-397, September.
    15. George Alogoskoufis, 2014. "Endogenous Growth and External Balance in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 571-594, July.
    16. Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Óscar & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2013. "Technological-knowledge bias and the industrial structure under costly investment and complementarities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 440-451.
    17. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Aid, growth, and real exchange rate dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4480, The World Bank.
    18. Maria Thompson, 2008. "Complementarities and costly investment in a growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 231-240, September.
    19. Hwang, Jen-Te & Chung, Chien-Ping & Wang, Chieh-Hsuan, 2010. "Debt Overhang, Financial Sector Development And Economic Growth," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 51(1), pages 13-30, June.
    20. William Scarth, 2007. "Is Foreign-Owned Capital a Bad Thing to Tax?," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 422, McMaster University.
    21. Ben Fine, 1998. "Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 80, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    22. Michał Konopczyński, 2018. "Optimal fiscal policy in an emerging economy with credit constraints: theory and application for Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 169-231, September.

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