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The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Forward-Looking Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-9

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  • Artis, Michael J
  • Bladen-Hovell, Robin
  • Ma, Yue

Abstract

In this paper, the authors present a methodology for measuring the effects of economic policy where expectations are forward-looking. The methodology is then applied to the National Institute model, version 11; in this version, expectational variables appear in several key equations and the model may be solved in a forward-looking or backward-looking mode. The policy period for which the exercise is conducted is 1974-79, a period of considerable economic stress. The results obtained for the effects of policy when the model is solved in a forward-looking mode are compared with those obtained when expectations are formed adaptively. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, Michael J & Bladen-Hovell, Robin & Ma, Yue, 1994. "The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Forward-Looking Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-9," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 277-295, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:46:y:1994:i:2:p:277-95
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