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Output, Inflation and Commodity Prices

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  • Moutos, Thomas
  • Vines, David

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model which illuminates the interdependence between primary commodity prices and the rest of the economy. We study the role of commodity prices in a disinflation program, the role of commodity prices in determining whether or not a fiscal expansion is crowded out, and the effect on the manufacturing sector of the economy (i.e. that part of the economy described by a conventional macroeconomic model) of an exogenous increase in the supply of primary commodities. One of our main concerns is to draw an analogy between the roles of commodity prices and of exchange rates in all of the above processes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Moutos, Thomas & Vines, David, 1992. "Output, Inflation and Commodity Prices," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 355-372, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:44:y:1992:i:3:p:355-72
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    2. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Sengupta, Jonaki & Nag, Ranjanendra Narayan & Goswami, Bhaskar, 2013. "Terms of trade, capital accumulation and the macro-economy in a developing country: a theoretical analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(3), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Jonaki Sengupta & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Unemployment in a Dependent Economy," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 11(3), September.
    5. Lai, Ching-Chong & Hu, Shih-Wen & Fan, Chih-Ping, 2005. "The Overshooting Hypothesis of Agricultural Prices: The Role of Asset Substitutability," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Shih-wen Hu & Ching-chong Lai & Vey Wang, 1999. "Monetary Announcement and Commodity Price Dynamics: A Portfolio Balance Model," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 71-81, March.
    7. Alogoskoufis, George & Varangis, Panos, 1992. "OECD fiscal policies and the relative prices of primary commodities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 955, The World Bank.

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